forcast of price using 10 days and 48 hours
forcast of price using 10 days and 48 hours
Following a spectacular rise two days ago, Brent crude oil has slowed down its ascent and fluctuates below the $65 mark on Friday. Prices resumed the bias against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. dollar, signs of increasing global demand and a high discipline within OPEC. However, the upside potential still looks limited amid further remarkable growth in US shale oil production.
The OPEC members’ supportive comments this week have contributed significantly to the oil prices recovery, but it’s obviously not enough to provide a steady boost to the market, which is still focused on the negative signals from the American drillers and producers. Additionally, Libya’s crude production was said to increase from 1.05 million barrels a day to 1.1 million. Nigeria is also planning to ramp up its production, by 250 000 barrels a day by 2020.
Therefore, as long as the American industry continues to signal a new wave of shale revolution, Brent’s potential will likely remain limited. In the short-term, the price is unlikely to make a decisive break above the $65 level, especially as the market expects fresh Baker Hughes data. Should the report mark another increase in the number of oil rigs, Brent risks turning negative on the day below $64.
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US equity markets could end the week with a full house of gains as long as indices manage to hold onto the small gains being seen in futures ahead of the open.
This would also bring an end to two shocking weeks for equity markets that saw more than 10% quickly wiped off indices, the first time we’ve seen such a move since the start of 2016. While the prospect of higher yields and interest rates, combined with a surge in volatility, have been blamed for the decline, the rebound we’re now seeing reaffirms the belief that fundamentals are still strong which should prevent the situation deteriorating further.
There are a few economic releases that traders will likely be aware of as the week draws to a close. The UoM consumer sentiment reading is always an interesting release, given the importance of the consumer to the US economy. Building permits and housing starts will also be released ahead of the open on Friday. The bulk of companies may have already reporting numbers for the fourth quarter but there are still some more to come today, with 13 due to release earnings including Coca Cola and Kraft Heinz.
UK retail sales data for January was once again disappointing, providing further evidence that the post-Brexit squeeze on consumers is heaving an economic impact. While this could be partially reversed as sterling continues to rebound off its lows and wage growth picks up to offset higher living costs – assuming it does – we’re seeing few signs that the squeeze is easing and that’s being reflected in the spending figures.
The pound has actually been quite resilient to the data in the aftermath of the release. While it has since declined against the dollar, this has primarily been driven by the bounce in the greenback. The consumer squeeze and economic implications of it are already known and priced in, traders are far more concerned with wages and inflation and the impact this will have on interest rates, which makes the jobs report next Wednesday far more important.
Bitcoin is once again threatening the psychological $10,000 barrier but as was the case on Thursday, it’s struggling to maintain its push above and once again finds itself falling slightly short. While a break above $10,000 should be no more significant than any other, it would appear to represent an end to the plunge in bitcoin that saw it fall around 70% from its mid-December highs and for this reason, it’s proving a difficult hurdle to overcome.
Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon
Those expecting a similar response to breaking above $10,000 that we saw last time – a near 100% increase in less than three weeks – may also be disappointed. We’re not seeing the kind of euphoria that accompanied the break at the end of November when the speculative fomo trade was contributing greatly to its meteoric rise. The crash of the last couple of months has made this less of a one-way move and those that got burned may not be so keen to jump back in.
All of this is assuming that bitcoin will break above $10,000 which is far from certain when you consider the gradual – by its own standard – bounce from its lows. This could quite easily be another corrective move and the lows may be tested once again. The absence of a constant negative news flow is helping but whether this can be sustained is debatable.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued its first warning against pump-and-dump schemes involving cryptocurrencies while giving advice on how to buy crypto. This warning follows previous warnings by two other U.S. regulators.
The CFTC issued a Customer Protection Advisory on Thursday to warn the public to “beware of and avoid pump-and-dump schemes that can occur in thinly traded or new ‘alternative’ virtual currencies, digital coins or tokens.”
CFTC Director of Public Affairs Erica Elliott Richardson explained, “As with many online frauds, this type of scam is not new – it simply deploys an emerging technology to capitalize on public interest in digital assets,” adding that:
Pump-and-dump schemes long pre-date the invention of virtual currencies…The CFTC encourages all customers to thoroughly research potential investments, stay informed about tactics commonly used in investment fraud, and avoid investment opportunities they don’t fully understand.
The agency explained that “the organizers of the scheme will commonly spread rumors and urge immediate buying,” often through social media, noting that:
Some pump and dumps use false news reports, typically about a famous high-tech business leader or investor who plans to pour millions of dollars into a small, lesser known virtual currency or coin. Other fake news stories have featured major retailers, banks, or credit card companies, announcing plans to partner with one virtual currency or another.
After a certain length of time following the pump, the Commission states, the dump will begin. “The price falls and victims are left with currency or tokens that are worth much less than what they expected. From beginning to end, these scams can be over in just a few minutes,” the agency describes and immediately advises: “Customers should avoid purchasing virtual currency or tokens based on tips shared over social media.”
Citing that its job is to maintain “general anti-fraud and manipulation enforcement authority over virtual currency cash markets as a commodity in interstate commerce,” the CFTC revealed that it has received complaints from customers who have lost money to pump-and-dump schemes. Emphasizing that ultimately, “Customers should not purchase virtual currencies, digital coins, or tokens based on social media tips or sudden price spikes,” the Commission stated:
Customers can best protect themselves by purchasing only alternative virtual currencies, digital coins, or tokens that have been thoroughly researched – to separate hype from facts.
Last month, the CFTC took action against three cryptocurrency operators and their founders for commodity fraud and misappropriation.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has repeatedly warned against pump-and-dump schemes as well as market manipulations involving any financial instruments that can be classified as securities. In August, the agency issued a statement alerting investors of pump-and-dump schemes involving initial coin offerings (ICOs).
SEC Chairman Jay Clayton made a statement in December cautioning investors against “promoting or touting the offer and sale of coins without first determining whether the securities laws apply to those actions,” specifically those related to cryptocurrencies and ICOs. “Selling securities generally requires a license, and experience shows that excessive touting in thinly traded and volatile markets can be an indicator of ‘scalping,’ ‘pump and dump’ and other manipulations and frauds,” he described. The chairman then reiterated the same message last week.
In December, the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (Finra) also issued a statement warning investors not to fall for crypto-related stock scams including pump-and-dump frauds, advising them to:
Do your research before purchasing shares of any company offering investment opportunities in cryptocurrency…Don’t be fooled by unrealistic predictions of returns and claims made through press releases, spam email, telemarketing calls or posted online or in social media threads. These actions may be signs of a classic ‘pump and dump’ fraud.
What do you think of the CFTC’s guidance? Let us know in the comments section below.
Images courtesy of Shutterstock, CFTC, SEC, and Finra.
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The post US Regulator Warns Against Pump-and-Dumps and Advises How to Buy Crypto appeared first on Bitcoin News.
I have placed 3 Fibos, 1 showing the possible fall, and 2 to support the possible trend reversal out of the correction.
I am not making a move here, watching and waiting for confirmation either way.
Risk: – 69 pips Profit: +5 pips
Profit/ Risck Ratio: +7,2%
Theoric Probability: >70% Actual Probability: + 88.9%
Total Gain: + 282 pips